Welcome to Mortgage Notes. I am Kevin Cunningham, and I am building ReadMe Mortgage here in Citrus Heights while I complete my mortgage loan originator licensing. This is where I translate the mortgage world into clear explanations, twice a week. ReadMe Mortgage is not offering loans yet, and nothing here is a rate quote or advice for your situation. It is education, sourced and dated, so you can follow the same numbers the industry watches.
The headline number
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 22, 2026 put the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.32%, down from 7.40% the week before. The average 15-year fixed came in at 6.68%, down a touch from the prior week's 6.71%. A year ago, those same averages were 6.19% and 5.44%.
Freddie Mac's Chief Economist, Sam Khater, said the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined this week, offering some relief to prospective homebuyers. I read that the same way: relief, in a small dose.
The dip matters because of what came before it: seven straight weekly increases that carried the 30-year average from 6.66% in late August up to 7.40%, followed by one flat week at 7.40%. One week down is a break in the climb, not a reversal, and I will not pretend otherwise.
What this survey is, and what it is not
The survey is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. It is a national average and a trend tool. It is not a quote, not an offer, and not what any specific borrower will be charged. A real rate depends on credit profile, down payment, property type, loan program, and whether discount points are paid.
That distinction is the whole reason this blog exists. Headlines report the survey like it is a price tag. It is a thermometer, not a price tag.
Why rates climbed this fall
Mortgage pricing follows long-term bond yields more than it follows the Federal Reserve's short-term rate. Through September and into October, inflation readings came in hotter than markets expected, bond investors repriced, and mortgage averages climbed with them. When the data cools, the pressure usually eases. When it does not, weeks like the last seven are what you get.
What it means around Sacramento
National averages set the weather, not your exact price. For households here in the Sacramento region, the useful habit is simple: read the trend on Thursdays, when this survey posts, and budget around the current range instead of a hoped-for one. If the trend turns, the survey will show it over several weeks, not in one exciting headline.
Next edition lands Tuesday. If a topic would help you, the chat and email options on this site reach me directly at (408) 406-7900 or through the contact page.